"When Prophecy Fails" is a seminal publication in launching the whole idea of cognitive dissonance.
Now, there's new claims that Leon Festinger, who led research into the cult movement behind the book, committed multiple types of what is not just misframing but arguably research fraud.
At The Debrief, Ryan Whalen writes about both these claims and some of the pushback.
This, about two-thirds through, is arguably the nutgraf on all of that:
Fundamentally, Kelly’s work clearly illuminates many ethical breaches in When Prophecy Fails, and underscores the authors’ narrow focus on how groups respond to falsified predictions. However, not everyone feels that Kelly’s arguments completely upend the decades-old research, and it is important to note that Kelly’s paper offers a relatively narrow and specific refutation of the ideas in When Prophecy Fails and its claims regarding cognitive dissonance.
Maybe we should view this as similar to the Dunning-Kruger effect — it's partially refuted, but not totally, and we should narrow the scope of our claims and usage on both.
After all, both ideas have often been used in a denotative, not connotative sense, with sneers and politicization.
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