Thursday, November 20, 2025

Did Leon Festinger commit some sort of research fraud?

"When Prophecy Fails" is a seminal publication in launching the whole idea of cognitive dissonance.

Now, there's new claims that Leon Festinger, who led research into the cult movement behind the book, committed multiple types of what is not just misframing but arguably research fraud. 

At The Debrief, Ryan Whalen writes about both these claims and some of the pushback. 

This, about two-thirds through, is arguably the nutgraf on all of that:

Fundamentally, Kelly’s work clearly illuminates many ethical breaches in When Prophecy Fails, and underscores the authors’ narrow focus on how groups respond to falsified predictions. However, not everyone feels that Kelly’s arguments completely upend the decades-old research, and it is important to note that Kelly’s paper offers a relatively narrow and specific refutation of the ideas in When Prophecy Fails and its claims regarding cognitive dissonance.

Maybe we should view this as similar to the Dunning-Kruger effect — it's partially refuted, but not totally, and we should narrow the scope of our claims and usage on both. 

After all, both ideas have often been used in a denotative, not connotative sense, with sneers and politicization. 

Thursday, November 13, 2025

Bart Ehrman is retiring!

Interestingly, it is next month, in the middle of an academic year, and not next spring. Why?

Anyway, his blog site is promoting a final lecture Dec. 7.

He claims it will be about "The Greatest Discovery in the History of Biblical Studies."

Now, if he's talking both Christian testaments plus the "intertestamental" period, it has to be the Dead Sea Scrolls, right? 

If it's New Testament only, and he goes that way, I'd say that, contra him and Jeff Kloha, no, it's Nag Hammadi.

In either case, Bart, if you're retiring, use the additional time to write better books than your last three or four. (I fear he won't, and shudder at the possibility of something even worse in the future.) 

Worst and most recent? His Armageddon book, when he went Marcionite on the Old Testament, then ignored some of the apocalyptic stuff he would have read at Wheaton, then ignored OT apocalyptic material that would have been in those Chick tracts, above all, "Gog and Magog." 

Just about as bad? His second most recent, his "JW" book as I call it, and yes, THOSE JWs, for claiming the New Testament does not talk about hellfire and eternal damnation. 

Third most recent and third worst? His history, theology, and comparative religions uninformed book on the causes for the rise of Christianity

Thursday, November 06, 2025

My Goodreads review system

 

Since the much-self-heralded overhaul of the Yellow Satan-owned book review website a little over a year ago failed to give us partial-star review options, unlike places like Storygraph, where my account has pretty much gone dormant, and my regional library, both of which have nowhere near Yellow Satan's money, I finally figured I'd knock out a piece here about how I use partial stars.

I'll look at non-fiction first, as what middlebrow or whatever fiction I read has a different review system and is of less depth. I'll also add comments about particular types of non-fiction as needed.

Side note to begin: Lack of an index on a non-fiction book can cost you up to one full star. 

Second note: I, like Goodreads friend Marquise, have become a more critical reviewer as I've gotten older. Books from a decade or more ago would probably in many cases rank a half star or more lower today. 

5 full stars:

Rare. For history, the book must have a good thesis, be well presented if it's controversial, etc. For military or diplomatic history, good analysis needed. Good and legible maps needed if the book needs them. Good photos, on plate pages, preferably, as needed. NO factual errors. Political science/political history? Minus the maps angle, pretty much the same. Science? Good info, at a non-dumbed down public level. Charts, graphs etc., as parallel to maps in things like military history, are a must. Again, they should be legible as well as explanatory. Critical religious studies? On biblical criticism and exegesis, new thought is fine, but anything flunking Ockham's Razor or even approaching that is not. This is even more the case on archaeology, anthropology and other social sciences.

Within 5 stars, you may get on my "worth buying" shelf if you truly nail all of this.

4.75 stars:

No obvious failures. May have minor, trivial and totally non-essential errors, but usually, I won't allow that. Usually, this is because the book just falls short of the pinnacle, and, in a Major League Baseball reference, re the Hall of Fame, I don't believe in a "big hall."

4.5 stars:

History? Very solid, informative, but not quite compelling. A less than fully-compelling narrative may be part of why. Maybe you fell short on picking up ideas hinted as in your thesis. Biblical criticism: Somewhat the same. Ditto on social sciences. "Hard" sciences: Maybe, especially in biology and evolution, the narrative wasn't quite there. Physics? You probably didn't sell me on just how important the idea is.

4.25 stars:

In all nonfiction areas, you've got something good, but it's not that new, not that broad beyond what I already know, whether in terms of information, or ideas, or narrative, or value. Or, if newer, you didn't sell it well enough.

4 stars:

In history, military history and political science, you either definitely didn't move enough beyond what's already out there, or else you had either a poorly formed thesis or else a poorly defended one if new. You also, where not only warranted but called for, were inadequate on maps, charts, photos, etc. And, if you have an index, but it's partial or inadequate, and the book was very good otherwise, you'll be here. 

3.75 stars:

Same as above, but you also may have become tendentious. This is also the case in biblical criticism, social sciences, etc. And, if you have an index, but it's partial or inadequate, and the book was pretty good otherwise, you'll be here. 

3.5 stars:

On history and related, usually, you're not that much more than conventional or received wisdom, but tidbits and nuggets here and there make this of some value. In the hard sciences, as well as to a lesser extent in the social sciences and some humanities, like philosophy, you probably did not do good work explaining items that needed explanation. Related may be that your writing was too dense, or quasi-academic.

3.25 stars:

Not used that often, but similar to the above, only with more problems on writing, whether narrative style, poor explanation, or more. Serious lack of the peripherals, of charts, graphs, photos, maps, etc., may get you here. Total lack of an index, combined with other problems, will get you here or worse.

3 stars: 

Basically, you're average in my take on average, per all of the above.

2.75 stars: 

Probably used even less than 3.25. Per becoming a more critical reviewer with age, and per "ars longior, vita brevis," I'm less likely to waste quarter-star nuance on you.

2.5 stars:

History and related? If your book needs a thesis, it's probably poorly written and poorly defended as well. You're also surely missing some of the peripherals above. Biblical criticism? You're getting either too close to fundagelical territory, or if Christian New Testament criticism, too close to either that or Jesus mythicism. Sociology, anthropology and some political science? For this leftist who's a skeptical leftist, you may also be getting too far into identitarian-based ideas. Or, you may be getting too far into "-isms"; this can be true with philosophy and philosophy of history type books, too. On hard science books, you probably haven't done a good job of explaining concepts and such well to educated laypersons, or similar. This is going to be especially true in things like serious "pop" physics. If I need half a hand, at least, on quantum gravity, and a full hand on your sub-version, and you don't supply it, for example, you'll be here. Archaeology, anthropology? Poor explanation of relations between different peoples, cultures, etc. can also get you here.

2.25 stars:

Might use this a bit more than 2.75. Basically, it says your book is near the fairly bad territory, but not quite there. Or, that it is fairly bad for me, but some people may find moderate redeeming value. 

2 stars:

Your book is fairly bad for several of the reasons above. In history, you may be over your head, on a poor thesis which isn't new, along with bad narrative plus not being able to organize raw information into history.

1.75 stars:

Used rarely. Basically, your book is falling into really bad territory, but it's not quite totally there.

1.5 stars:

Your book is pretty much really bad. It has no truly redeeming qualities, even for people less informed than me. In the hard sciences, you're at least flirting with pseudoscience. Ditto in health and medicine. In history, you're over your head, or at least flirting with the edge of conspiracy theories. On political science, some types of history, and some social sciences, you're getting strongly into identitarianism, or other isms. I may like crushing you.

1.25 stars:

Very rare. Possibly a charity rating half the time.

1 star:

You're more into conspiracy theory, in history and political science, even if not a central part of your thesis. You're into quack levels of pseudoscience. You're into hard-core identitarianism. You're failing on trying to defend things. I probably like crushing you.

Less than 1 star:

I review-bombed your conspiracy theory book is the usual. Or you write a book that appears to be knowledgeable, but in reality has a self-undercutting pseudo-thesis that isn't what the book is actually about, like Sapolsky's "Determined."  If it's not a review-bomb review, I totally like thoroughly crushing you.

==

Middlebrow fiction?

Something like Tony Hillerman's murder mysteries, or Ursula LeGuin's fantasy?

I use a three-part rating, looking at plot, narrative and characters. I then average out the three, with weighting toward one of the three areas as necessary. 

Plot: The scale runs from plausible to implausible. On mystery-type books, don't be either a Captain Obvious, or on the other side, offer up bizarro twists.

Narrative: Don't give me stilted dialogue, or stilted narrative moving the plot along, either. And, if your book is part of a series by you, do a reasonable job at book-to-book consistency.

Characters: Are they plausible as individuals, on psyche, personhood related to job and other situations in the book, and interactions with other characters? If part of a series, do they grow from book to book? Is the growth and changes reasonable?

On the sum of the parts, how am I being entertained? 

==

Highbrow fiction?

If it's philosophical fiction, whether Plato, Hume, or Camus, you're getting a mix of the three-elements judging plus how I would judge your philosophy as philosophy.

Historical fiction? Less emphasis on the three-elements judging, but not nonexistent by any means, and plausible history. I'm not expecting maps here, but if an Alison Weir, etc., photos/paintings of photos, of course. And, within your historical fiction, like history, some sort of thesis, defended.

Alt-history? If it's a novel, at a minimum, be better than Harry Turtledove. If it's an alt-history essay like in the "What If?" series of books, no more than one major twist, please, and otherwise, meet the canons of history writing.

Other "highbrow"? A Thomas Mann to cite someone I've read from within the 20th century? Beyond the three-elements judging, have you moved me? Have you made me think? Have you enlarged me? Middlebrow fiction might be about entertainment; highbrow, for me, is about these things.

==

Finally, a couple of other additional notes.

First, I will call out egregiously bad reviewers, either as a class, or individuals, in some cases. That's above all in political science, modern political history and related, where I suspect low-star reviewers as individuals or a class are doing so for narrowly political reasons.

Second, I've called out much further, in a blog post, an oft-wrong history reviewer who has willfully developed a cult around himself. Don't make yourself into another History Nerd/History Toddler. 

Thursday, October 23, 2025

'Karma' 2.0 — a secular spin on Edward Arlington Robinson

Ennui was in the air, and one lament
From me, one of a few confusing flaws
In divers of self-images. Because
The world round me would not march to my bent,
Was I to answer for my discontent?
I pondered, and the reason for it was 
A purveyor of a religious cause
Warning the world that it must repent.
 
Accepting a wonted disgust at this
I magnified a fancy that I wished
His own evil led to an end so grim.
Then, my eye rove, found solace if not bliss
And, from the pavement before me, I fished …
A dime for myself who was dead to men.
 
====
 
 
Christmas was in the air and all was well
With him, but for a few confusing flaws
In divers of God's images. Because
A friend of his would neither buy nor sell,
Was he to answer for the axe that fell?
He pondered; and the reason for it was,
Partly, a slowly freezing Santa Claus
Upon the corner, with his beard and bell.
 
Acknowledging an improvident surprise,
He magnified a fancy that he wished
The friend whom he had wrecked were here again.
Not sure of that, he found a compromise;
And from the fulness of his heart he fished
A dime for Jesus who had died for men.

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Top posts for the third quarter of 2025

As usual on this quarterly roundup, these top posts may not all have been FROM the previous quarter, just the most commonly read. I'll note the "evergreen" ones.

No. 10 is from the early salad days, indeed, 2007, "A birthday poem for 'Pharayngula' aka P.Z. Myers." That was of course before I realized he was a Gnu Atheist. 

No. 9 is from 2023, and I think I know why "Fascism in the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod" is trending again. It's due to LCMS President Matthew Harrison's anointing of Charlie Kirk. 

No. 8 is even older than No. 10, from 2006. My "More philosophical reflections from my national parks vacation" was a riff on "Dover Beach." 

No. 7? My piece from 2023, "Standing Josiah and Deuteronomy on their heads" may be trending from some Reddit link. (I love how people claim it's too convoluted. In my opinion, they either don't want to read it through, just can't understand how the "Josiah" and "Deuteronomy" parts overlap, and/or don't get the research behind either half of it.) 

No. 6, "Thoughts from Olympus," is from the same vacation as No. 8. 

No. 5 is an oldie but a goodie. "More proof the Buddha was no Buddha" is from 2007. 

No. 4, "A Lutheran college myth bites the dust," is about the truth of the song "Lean on Me" and is from 2020. 

No. 3, "The great ahistoricity of Acts and radical thoughts on Paul's demise," from 2020, is trending because I posted it on r/AskHistorians at Reddit and then had the Nazi moderators pull it down. They later banned me, which I discussed at my main site.

No. 2 is "Genesis 6 Retold," which I shared in various spots recently. It's an extended haiku riff on the myth and legend behind the flood story.

No. 1, "Ezra, meet Snopes" is from way back in 2005, not too long after I started this site, and discusses some thoughts behind the idea of Ezra as editor of the Torah and its four main documentary strains. 

Thursday, October 09, 2025

Novels, nostalgia and need

I grew up in Gallup, New Mexico, self-proclaimed "Indian Capital of the World."

Years and years ago, I read many, though not all, of murder mystery author Tony Hillerman's Chee and Leaphorn novels, about two Navajo Tribal Police officers, (I also read two non-Big Rez murder mysteries of his.)

Hillerman has long come off as sympathetic to Navajos in particular, and American Indians of the Southwest in general, as people. Going beyond oater dime novelist Louis L'Amour, who said more than once if he wrote about a place, "it was there," with Hillerman, not only was the place there, but so were the sociology and culture.

Well, recently, for various reasons, I started reading some of Hillerman again. But, after "Sacred Clowns," I may have hit a wall. An edited version of my Goodreads review will explain why.

Sacred Clowns (Leaphorn & Chee, #11)

Sacred Clowns by Tony Hillerman
My rating: 3 of 5 stars

On my "formula" for mid-level fiction reviews?
Characters 4.25-4.5
Plot 4.5
Dialogue 4-4.25

I'll take that to 4.5 or so overall but, round down due to an error.

Nope, it's "dropped" to 3 stars due to other issues listed at bottom. Some are specific to this book; others, the majority, apply to the Hillerman "canon" in general. I'm going to get to that after a condensed version of the first part.

On characters, Jim Chee as acting sergeant shows a first round of character development within the Chee-Leaphorn books, accepting enough of Lt. Joe Leaphorn's experience-developed wisdom to actually follow some rules. He also finds out that he may not be enough of a traditionalist to satisfy old-time hataałii (usually rendered by Hillerman as "shaman" or similar) to become one himself, complexifying his look at Janet Pete as too much of a "city Indian." One book later than Coyote Waits and two earlier than First Eagle, when you look at the series, you can see this "character plot line" developing. In addition to their hot-and-cold at times, the ethical playoff late in this story is good. As with widower Leaphorn's quasi?-romantic relationship with Prof. Bourebonette, this is Hillerman writing a generally internally consistent set of stories.
...

St. Bonaventure in Thoreau? It was there when I was growing up in Gallup eons ago. Not sure if it's the same church building today or not. Back then, it had a wood-plank floor that doubled as a roller skating rink, including being rented out; my church's youth group went out there more than once. I don't know if Gallup didn't have a roller rink then, or it was too big to rent to small groups, or what. (Or so I thought it was there. Teh Google lists skating in Gallup itself and not in Thoreau today, but Google Maps with "roller skating Thoreau NM" pointed to the Thoreau Community Center. Maybe skating moved there, or maybe that was the original church building.)

This all is why Hillerman is not dime-novelist Louis L'Amour, who used to brag that if a place was listed in one of his novels, it's there. With Hillerman, the people and culture are there, too.

But now, the problems start, beginning with smaller ones and working to bigger. 

First, he mentions an Iyanbito and Iyanbito Chapter House south of Gallup [pg 121, hardcover], and the only one I am familiar with is the one to the east. Besides, the Red Rock Chapter House is to Gallup's south. See for yourself. I have driven past Iyanbito many, many times. It has an exit on I-40. This is why I double-taked.

Sorry, Tony, but you don't explain why you "moved" Iyanbito if deliberate. And, a basic error otherwise? On the border on ratings, that gets you bumped down on the Navajo authenticity issue. That said, in this Smithsonian piece he admits to "shuffling around" places to meet his needs, but? There was no need for this. Nor for calling the Zuni Drive-In the Gallup Drive-In. Was it going to sue? It closed in 1982, anyway, so it couldn't. (I saw "Star Wars" there as a kid.)

There's an issue or two in other Hillerman novels that generally hold him at four stars, not five. For instance, he talks about "the Tuba City type of Navajo," a description both sociological, in terms of demeanor, and physiologically, in terms of build, as if genes work that deterministically and there's no outbreeding into that small area. And, of course, none of that is true.

Now, to a bigger issue, expressed in this novel, and I think one or two others.

That is his take on the American Indian Movement . Yes, many people within Navajo leadership didn't like it. That's because it challenged their authority, just as on the Sioux reservations. Calling its leadership, like Dennis Banks and Russell Means, "city Indians," comes off as a bit, or more, condescending. And, it's a lie. Banks was born on a reservation in Minnesota. Means was born on a reservation in South Dakota. Both Bellencourts were born on reservations. Banks was forcefully removed to a BIA boarding school at age 5. Means' parents moved to San Francisco at age 3 to escape poverty; the Bellencourt family moved to Minneapolis when older brother Vernon was 16.

This comes off sounding like my dad. (I remember when AIM came to Gallup.) I've outgrown that, Tony. This review goes down to three stars, and I read you more skeptically on "flavor of the Southwest" in the future.

For a truly nuanced and insightful book on AIM, especially in the Siouxan heartland of its operations, read "The Unquiet Grave."

And, I realized I have now been "triggered," or if I accept that something like free will exists (I do, if you emphasize the "something like" and that it is not necessarily totally conscious), I have self-triggered.

First, the quasi-sneer about "city Indian" (also Blizzard, the "city Indian" Cheyenne from Chicago BIA agent in this novel) surely affects Hillerman's authorial stance toward Janet Pete throughout the entire series of his novels. He doesn't totally throw her under the bus when he has the final break-up between her and Chee, but he does entirely write her out of future books. Did his attitude toward "city Indians" in general harden as he grew older?

Related? As I think more skeptically, while Hillerman may not totally paint a romantic Rousselian noble savage view of reservation Navajo life, the toes of one of his two feet, at minimum, are in that swamp. And I use that word deliberately. In reality, not only is the poverty worse than he portrays, but bits of it are to some degree self-inflicted. Navajos overgrazed the land badly enough a century ago that, for this reason as well as price controls, Navajo sheep, like Iowa hogs, were "culled" as part of the Agricultural Adjustment Act in the 1930s. There's some degree of overgrazing again. Beyond that, as disagreements between chapters over Bears Ears have shown, there's not a "unified Navajo stance" on many things. In either case, on the land, as he has Chee drive by the pivot irrigation lands of what is today Navajo Agricultural Products Inc, and contrast them with a bit of ruefulness to the buttes and mesas, he overlooks the sheepherding.

In other words, to mash up Colbert and a cliche? "Truth is truthier than fiction."

Another issue? I think Hillerman has a generally bilagaana take on frybread, which is a flash point among many modern American Indians of many tribes. That's also not specific to this book, but, I never recall Chee, as an "authentic" Navajo, in any of my past Hillerman reading, saying it's not authentic Navajo food.

One other issue. One of Hillerman's novels is entirely on the Zuni reservation. Others have Hopi connections. But? Even though the Ute Mountain Ute reservation is directly north of the New Mexico portion of the Big Rez, I'm unaware of any Ute characters in any of his novels. Also not mentioned, IIRC? The Paiutes who actually live on the Utah strip portion of the Big Rez. (Indeed, some of these Paiutes have Navajo surnames like Begay or Yazzie.)

One OTHER other issue. Why, given Leaphorn's strident antipathy to alcohol, after his wife's death, does Hillerman name his new female interest Bourebonette? Yes, the initial "e" hides it, but really? Something like "bourbon"? Am I the first to notice this?

Anyway, beyond being self-triggered, I realized my nostalgia leading me to re-read Hillerman wasn't as much nostalgia as escapism — not the escapism of reading fiction, but real escapism, the desire to move out of Tex-ass, with the New Mexico of my childhood years a reasonable option financially — should I get a pre-retirement job there — among today's US Southwest and Western states. 

Expanding beyond my main blog, this probably isn't that likely. The sewer of U.S. job hunting sites gets worse and worse all the time. And, I'm not well-enough off to say that post-retirement moving will be easy.

Update: "The Wailing Wind" is even worse, especially given that Hillerman undermines his own schtick about painting a genuine Sitz im Leben about Navajos, Navajoland and things related.

View all my reviews

Saturday, October 04, 2025

Still looking for ways to improve the blogroll

Looking at a couple of recent additions, as I delve in:

== 

I can't remember where I saw "The Amateur Exegete," but I thought he looked promising at first.

He looks less and less so now.

He has a critical approach to scholarship, but it's on the conservative side of that. To use a "name" on the New Testament side? He's James McGrath level, probably.

His Aug. 24 roundup? (He hosts some sort of critical religious thinking blog roundup, or hosts it for himself) Believing in the historicity of Moses? At least he presents the modern critical conventional POV.

His Aug. 17 roundup? Worse, with the last entry, who he admitted in comment exchange is a personal friend:

Blogger καταπέτασμα writes about the Matthean narrative’s guarded tomb and argues that the story seems to suggest Pilate was aiming to kill a resurrected Jesus if push came to shove.

I clicked through, and while it's bad, it's arguably NOT the worse that guy has written.

That said, the roundups do give me a few connections. That's where I saw the idiotic new Testimonium Flavianum book, including a free PDF. 

A Sept. 11 post? He linked to the odious Tim O'Neill with No. 16 in his series of "Great Myths." I told this dude that O'Neill's greatest myth was his self promoted myth denying papal antisemitism. So far, he hasn't responded.

His Sept. 21 roundup? Links to reviews of multiple evangelical bible commentaries etc. This is NOT a blog carnival; it's a personal roundup, like the ones above.

His Oct. 12 roundup? He's not convinced of the non-existence, the non-historicity, of Abraham. 

I had thought he was an atheist, but reading his "about" more carefully, he's a None. He says his goal is to promote better biblical understanding. And he's not doing it, not IMO.

So that I don't forget about free books, I may move him to my links list but delete him from the blogroll feed. 

==

Through a Bible Darkly is good, from what I can see — but posts so rarely.

==

Markus Vincent is here to see how much he discusses other issues besides his "heterodox" take on Marcion vs Luke. 

==

Thoughts on Papyrus is a lot more into fiction than I am and may move to the links list. 

==

Atheology has been removed, period. As I read through it more, the author has much more of his own confusion than he claims "philosophers" have. 

==

I have added ResoluteReader, who seems a lot more of what I'm looking for. Reads more nonfiction than Papyrus, and the same broad vein as I do. Well, sort of. He is some sort of Marxist, which this leftist definitely is not. For example, I would never try to situate environmentalism within even a semi-Marxist framework.

==

I have added Peter Kirby's site. He is known, if not by name, to many as the creator and maintainer of Early Christian Writings