The Nones are still not reviving

 Friendly Atheist Hemant Mehta takes a look at new Pew et al data on where the Nones are at.

 Beyond the reasons why, most of which are obviously, one demographic issue, which should also be obvious, is of note.

People leave organized religion (or move from one to another, too) for the most part before age 30. So, if Catholics or Protestants are losing the early adult young, either due to active decision or passive drift, if they don't get them back soon, they never will.

In other words, as Merikkka moves more and more to a non-White majority (it already is natally), it moves if somewhat more slowly to a smaller Christian majority. Most the rest change in the 30-49 age range.

But, beyond most the obvious ones?

Churches are losing people because of increased politicization. And, of course, we're NOT talking about "librul" mainline Protestants. Will the winger churches, especially the ones, whether denominational or independent megachurches, who are not just winger but full MAGA, listen? Probably not. Rather, if anything, they'll circle the wagons.

And, per an earlier piece, Charlie Kirk's martyrdom (sic), semi-officially by many of those wingnut Protestants including the LCMS wingnut Lutherans of my birth, but NOT Rome, has NOT spurred, at least in the few months since, any great revival. 

The Second Great Awakening, and even more, social Christianity of the early 20th century, actually offered something to working-class Americans. The modern success gospel preached by conservative evangelicals, especially outside denominational structures? No.

I don't think the current "holding steady" will pick up massive Nones steam for another decade. After that? Possibly moderate Nones steam for mild growth. By 2050, the US may be where western Europe was in 1950.

The stability is probably due to older Boomers and what's left of pre-Boomers turning back to religion in their later years, especially if they have health problems and even more, psychological turmoil. But, since younger generations are less and less religious in the first place, that will happen less and less in the future. Also, COVID was a one-off mini-bump for organized religion.